possible out of that generation he is by far the closest to the "hood" guys,it might make it easier for him to get that population involved,he is also lucky to seem to be having a peaceful campaign(unless dirty work is being done underground) so we'll see
he makes a mistake though for me in the way he handles himself between fally and ferre,always tends to slide towards fally while they know him as a hypocrite and double language so he finds himself supported neither by the fally nor the ferre guys
he should be neutral,since anyways he'll never displace that rivalry,he'll maybe do "better" than one of them in the form of the moment and thats it but when people say x will take the place of y its impossible when its already a 20 year long rivalry the roots are too strong