it will simply depend on their maturity,technically if we are honest,the split can start from their very first major common interview,with interviewer asking who is the leader and how is he gonna lead known guys,if they lack wisdom meltdown is certain from that point,another point will be the fans' influence on each,and the staffs of each,then of cours if they pop up too much you can count on the occasional peace of elders to fight them
good luck to them anyways
the positive though is that they have japonais who can be their father maybe he'll command some respect which will avoid leadership wars